Ahead of the upcoming elections, we wanted to share some insights from some of the AB/EV voting we are collecting across the country. Data Trust has been the leading provider of AB/EV data and has valuable insights no other firm can provide due to our unique position at the heart of the center-of-right ecosystem.
- Competitive legislative races have been returning AB/EV ballots at a much higher rate compared to 2021 than the less competitive districts.
- There has not been as large a disparity between modeled Democrats and Republicans as we have seen in the past.
- Modeled Republican voters are doing a much better job of returning their AB/EV ballots.
Read on for more details.
The above graph represents the number of returned AB/EV ballots over time compared to historical returns. In 2021 and 2022, Virginia had slightly more voting activity than the current state house elections, although 2023 is on a similar trajectory. Diving deeper into these AB/EV returns, we see that competitive legislative races have been returning AB/EV ballots at a much higher rate compared to 2021 than the less competitive districts.
For the AB/EV requests, we see in the graph below there has not been as large a disparity between modeled Democrats and Republicans as we have seen in the past. The key group we want to highlight are these ‘newly registered’ (NewReg) voters. Amongst all NewReg voters, only 5.7% of them have requested an absentee ballot. However, you will notice that the more partisan a NewReg voter is, the more likely they are to request a ballot. This is important to note as ~45% of this group has registered in 2023 and would be a prime group of voters to engage in voter outreach, especially those who participated in previous primary elections.
The table showing the different return rates for each voter universe highlights the effectiveness of such voter outreach efforts on AB/EV voting. In every segment of Voter Frequency, the modeled Republican universe of voters has a higher return rate of AB/EV ballots than Democrats. This partisan gap in the return rate is more prevalent the lower the turnout rate of the voter. This data highlights that modeled Republican voters are doing a much better job of returning their AB/EV ballots.
It is crucial to utilize real-time AB/EV data for targeted decision-making. As the leading provider of AB/EV data, Data Trust can assist your organization in making informed decisions regarding voter behavior. If you would like to learn more about how Data Trust can support your AB/EV projects and data requirements, please contact us here.