The 2024 Presidential primary season is underway, and voters are beginning to tell the story of what the upcoming election might look like. Our best-in-class data collection and processing team allows Data Trust a fast turnaround to provide key insights and analyses to share with our clients.

Some impressive findings from the New Hampshire primary results:

  • Republicans had the highest vote totals in a NH Presidential Republican Primary ever.
  • President Trump had a surge in electoral backing, increasing his vote totals by over 70% compared to 2016.
  • Smaller, more rural counties and towns are contributing more and performing better for Republicans than ever before. These areas have historically been more Democratic, but the recent increase in support for Republicans is encouraging.
    • President Trump’s support nearly doubled in Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, and Strafford counties.

Read on for more details.

The first tables we want to highlight shows the changes in GOP primary vote share and President Trump’s election performance vs. the rest of the GOP field from 2016 to 2024, as well as the top of the ticket GOP performances of the last four November elections. These tables are sorted by the highest contributing counties to least. The smaller counties saw the largest shifts in their overall contribution to the vote and in their support for President Trump.

The above is a map of New Hampshire towns and the increase in vote totals for President Trump from 2016 to 2024. The smaller, more rural towns have been turning out at higher rates for Republicans and President Trump in recent years. The support for President Trump in the more populous counties of Rockingham, Hillsborough, and Merrimack did not see as big of voter increase compared to small communities throughout the state.

Since 2016, there has been a discernible shift in the distribution of Republican support within the 15 most populous municipalities of New Hampshire. In the 2016 General Election, President Trump garnered 36.1% of his total votes from these towns. By 2022, this proportion decreased to 34.7% for Governor Sununu. This pattern is similarly reflected in the GOP Presidential Primaries. These findings underscore a noteworthy trend wherein Republicans are building a winning coalition of support from smaller and medium-sized municipalities.

We know clients want to understand recent election trends nationwide. As the leading provider of voter data collection and processing, Data Trust can support your organization in making informed decisions about voter behavior and recent electoral trends. Contact us to learn more about how Data Trust can assist your projects and data requirements.