At Data Trust, we recognize the paramount significance of Vote History files for our clients, underscoring our entire team’s diligent processing as a top priority upon availability. Our best-in-class data collection and processing team allows Data Trust fast turnaround to provide key insights and analyses to share with our partners.

The recently processed Virginia Vote History file reveals crucial insights, including the following:

• Statewide, turnout and enthusiasm saw a decline compared to 2019, but target districts exhibited high engagement, almost matching Gubernatorial election year-level turnout.
Modeled Republicans demonstrated higher enthusiasm than modeled Democrats in this election, with modeled Republicans in target Senate Districts (SDs) turning out 11.2% higher than those in non-target SDs.
• Despite increased registration among younger voters (17-35), it did not translate into a significant uptick in voter turnout during Virginia’s off-year elections.
• Across all levels of voting propensity, modeled Republicans returned their absentee ballots at higher rates than modeled Democrats.

Read on for more details.

Turnout in the 2023 Virginia election decreased by 1.5% from 2019 but still marked a significant improvement compared to 2011 and 2015. Modeled Republican increases in turnout outpaced modeled Democrat increases statewide. Modeled Republican increases in turnout from 2019 outpaced modeled Democrat increases in turnout statewide, 3.1% vs 1.5%, respectively. Comparing target vs. non-target Senate Districts (SDs) reveals enthusiasm differences between parties. Modeled Republicans in target SDs turned out 11.2% higher than those in non-target SDs, while modeled Democrats only had a 6.3% higher turnout in target SDs.

An evident attention gap across age groups in off-year elections is illustrated in the charts, with older voters showing higher turnout in targeted SDs. The chart below highlights the share of registered voters and turnout levels broken down by age range for the 2019 and 2023 elections. Despite increased registration among younger voters (17-35), their turnout in off-year elections did not see a significant rise, as indicated in the chart below.

Republicans’ robust effort to promote absentee and early voting (AB/EV) during the 2023 Virginia elections paid off, with higher return rates than modeled Democrats across all levels of voting propensity. The chart below highlights the return rates for AB/EV ballots across different levels of voting propensity.

The left-hand column denotes the voting frequency of the last 4 off-year elections [VF_OY] – 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023.

Clients must comprehend how recent turnout impacts election trends nationwide. As the leading provider of voter data collection and processing, Data Trust can support your organization in making informed decisions about voter behavior and recent electoral trends. Contact us to learn more about how Data Trust can assist your projects and data requirements.