In the most recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the Democrat candidate won by a margin of 203,431 votes, or 11%, with modeled Democrats having an 8-point advantage in turnout levels. The higher levels of turnout for modeled Democrats were impacted by voting at higher AB/EV rates compared to Republicans. The tables and charts below are built off Data Trust’s best in class absentee collection process.
The tables below show the percentage of each segment that voted AB/EV this past Supreme Court election by modeled turnout (left) and voter frequency of the last four Wisconsin Supreme Court elections (right). Modeled Democrat voters in the mid and low turnout propensity segments voted AB/EV by more than 2:1 compared to modeled Republicans.
The number of AB/EV votes rose drastically during the 2020 election cycle with close to 60% of the vote coming from AB/EV in that year’s November general election, largely due to the pandemic. The recent increases in AB/EV voting show how modeled Democrats have maintained these AB/EV voting habits compared to modeled swing and Republican voters reverting back to their typical voting methods. The chart below shows the share of the vote coming from AB/EV by modeled party over time.
The demographic makeup of AB/EV voters has also been shifting over time in Wisconsin. The graph below shows the share of the AB/EV vote by age range over time. Voters 65+ have been steadily increasing their share of the AB/EV votes, contributing more than 50% of the total AB/EV vote this past April. The other age ranges had steady or decreasing AB/EV contributions with voters 65+ contributing even more to the AB/EV vote in these off-year and non-November general elections.
With AB/EV voting here to stay, it’s important that voters know how to leverage all of the voting opportunities available to them. Organizations won’t be able to find a larger trove of historical AB/EV voting data than at Data Trust. If you are interested in learning more about how Data Trust can assist with your AB/EV projects, please contact us here.
