These dates are subject to change, please confer with your local electoral authority as Election Day approaches.

Toplines

  • President Trump won 128 of the 159 counties in both 2016 and 2020.
    • President Trump holds the record for the most Republican votes received in 125 counties.
  • President Trump’s vote totals increased by 17.8% from 2016 to 2020.
    • Hancock County experienced the highest growth in Trump’s vote totals, with an increase of 36.9%.

Election performance shift for Trump, 2020 vs 2016

Turnout

Understanding election results by population density is crucial because it reveals voting patterns and strategic areas for engagement. Here’s a breakdown of partisan election performances and total vote contributions by population density since 2012:

  • Modeled Republican performance in Georgia has remained strong in rural and town areas, with steady or increasing support over recent election cycles.
  • Suburban and rural areas have seen slight increases in their share of the overall vote, with the largest decline coming from the urban areas.

The additional charts below highlight voter turnout trends in presidential elections from 2012 through 2020.

  • Modeled Republican voters consistently show higher turnout rates compared to Modeled Democrats across all election years, maintaining an advantage in voter participation.
  • All modeled partisan groups experienced a decrease in turnout from 2016 to 2020, with Modeled Republicans still maintaining the strongest turnout, at 81.6% in 2020.

AB/EV

Data Trust collects daily Absentee Ballot and Early Voting (AB/EV) files from Georgia, providing immediate insights for voter targeting. Data Trust has already been collecting daily AB/EV data from the state since October 3, 2024.

  • 223,000 requests have been made for this election, a significant drop compared to the 480,000 requests at the same point in the 2020 election.
  • Although in 2022 AB/EV voting fell from the pandemic high in 2020, it remained elevated compared to the historical pre-pandemic trendline.

  • Modeled Independent voters in Georgia experienced the largest increase in ABEV turnout from the two most recent presidential elections (~33% increase).