These dates are subject to change, please confer with your local electoral authority as Election Day approaches.
Turnout
From 2012 to 2022, Republican performances in Arizona have been relatively stable in rural and town areas. In contrast, there is a notable decline in suburban and urban vote share over the same period, with urban areas showing the steepest drop from 50.5% in 2012 to 43.6% in 2020.This is crucial because suburban and urban areas account for ~80% of the vote in the state.
- The charts below highlight voter turnout trends in recent presidential elections.
- Turnout among active voters dipped to 71.5% in 2016 but rebounded to 78.6% in 2020.
- Partisan turnout shows Republican voters consistently turnout the largest share of their base, increasing by 3.7% from 2016 to 2020, while Democrat turnout rebounded even stronger by 6.1% in 2020.
- Unaffiliated and other party registrant voters had the largest increase at 7.1%, highlighting their growing influence on election outcomes.
AB/EV
Data Trust collects and standardizes the AB/EV file individually from each county, including daily from Maricopa and Pima counties. Due to this county-level collection, Arizona is one of the hardest states to collect AB/EV records; by leveraging Data Trust data our clients can immediately glean insights and target of these voters.
All areas in Arizona saw a pandemic peak in absentee voting in 2020, despite already having widespread usage of these voting methods throughout the state.
- By 2022, AB/EV participation slightly decreased but remained above pre-pandemic trends in Arizona’s two largest counties, with Maricopa at 84%, Pima steady at 83%.
- Meanwhile, the remaining counties fell back to match their midterm election AB/EV turnout at 62%.
The final chart shows the percentage of votes from AB/EV by partisanship over the same time period.
- From 2016 to 2020, Democrats increased their percentage of AB/EV voting compared to Republican and other party registrants.
