Background
This was the first open gubernatorial primary for both parties since Gov. Chris Christie was term-limited in 2017. Since then, New Jersey has expanded to allow more early voting, and Republicans fielded a competitive, multi-candidate field in 2021. That elevated Republican engagement drew unusually high turnout in traditionally Republican regions, particularly in South Jersey and Ocean County.
Turnout
- Overall turnout surged in 2025: Statewide primary turnout jumped to 33%, up from just 18% in 2021 and 23% in 2017.
- Congressional District 2 (NJ-02) recorded the highest turnout in the 2021 primary but dropped to the lowest turnout in the 2025 primary.
- Ocean County: With a turnout rate of 39%, Ocean County led all counties in the 2025 primary — outpacing the highest turnout county from 2021 by 14% and the highest county from 2017 by 11%. Ocean County not only led in turnout in 2025 but also stands out as the most Republican-leaning county among New Jersey’s five most populous.
Vote Method
- Mail-in ballots continue their rise: In 2017, mail-in ballots accounted for 5% of total ballots cast. By 2025, that share exploded to 28%, reflecting a significant shift in voting methods, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Registration Along the Margins
- Party affiliation shifts: Between 2021 and 2025, approximately 1.2% of voters registered in all three primaries switched from Democratic to GOP affiliation, while only 0.5% shifted from GOP to Democrat.
- Republican high-propensity voter turnout jumped from 29% in 2017 to 53% in 2025.
- Female consistently made up 35% of registrants in each election and remained the largest bloc of voters. Their share of the vote was 38% in both 2017 and 2025, the two elections in which Democrats had open primaries. However, in 2025 male voters surpassed female voters as the largest voting bloc, significantly increasing their overall turnout percentage as well.
Looking Ahead
These statistics show that the New Jersey electorate has significantly shape shifted since the last open gubernatorial election eight years ago. Leveraging quality data is crucial for engaging and activating your voters, especially once Vote-By-Mail ballots begin to be sent out just over a month from now. Contact our team today to ensure you’re ready with the right data.
