Toplines
- Although there were more ballots cast in 2024, voter turnout slightly decreased overall compared to 2020.
- Modeled Republicans held the turnout advantage over modeled Democrats across all levels of voting propensity, gender, and age range.
- Among low-propensity voters, modeled Republicans had an 9.2% turnout advantage.
- President Trump increased his election margin in 74 of Michigan’s 83 counties and increased his vote totals in 81 of 83 counties in 2024.
- In Wayne County, Michigan’s Democrat stronghold and largest county, Trump’s margin rose by 9.2 percentage points, his largest increase in the state.
Turnout
- Republican electoral strength was strong again in 2024:
- Modeled Republicans held the turnout advantage over modeled Democrats across all levels of voting propensity, gender, and age range:
- Among high-propensity voters, modeled Republicans had a 1.6% turnout advantage.
- Among low-propensity voters, modeled Republicans had an 9.2% turnout advantage.
- Urban vote share declined to 20% in 2024, while rural areas increased to 29%, highlighting the growing rural influence and reduced urban significance.
- Modeled Republican female turnout reached 90.5%, up 9.2% from 2020.
- Modeled Republican male turnout reached 87.7%, up 9.1% from 2020.
- Modeled Republicans held the turnout advantage over modeled Democrats across all levels of voting propensity, gender, and age range:
AB/EV
- Over 60% of votes were cast prior to Election Day, a slight increase from 2020.
- Modeled Republicans nearly had an advantage over modeled Democrats in absentee voting.
- Modeled Democrats previously held a 14% advantage in 2020 and a 10% advantage in 2022.
Election Shifts
- President Trump flipped two counties he lost while maintaining victories in the 72 counties he won previously in 2020.
- President Trump increased his election margin in 74 of Michigan’s 83 counties compared to 2020:
- In Michigan’s six largest counties (52.1% of the total vote), President Trump’s margin rose by an average of 4.5 percentage points.
- In Wayne County (Michigan’s largest county representing 15.2% of the total vote), President Trump’s margin rose by 9.2 percentage points, the largest in the state.
- President Trump increased his vote totals in 81 of 83 counties in 2024.
To see how Presidential election margins have shifted over time, check out our online dashboard here.
