Toplines
- The 2024 election set a historic precedent for President Trump, who garnered the highest number of votes ever recorded in Georgia.
- Modeled Republicans outperformed modeled Democrats in voter turnout across all levels of voting propensity, gender, and age groups.
- The most significant Republican turnout advantages were observed among low-propensity voters (+8 points) and new voters (+9.7 points).
- For the first time, modeled Republicans had more voters casting absentee ballots than modeled Democrats.
- President Trump improved his vote totals in 150 of Georgia’s 159 counties (94%) and widened his election margin in 85% of counties compared to 2020.
- In Georgia’s largest and most Democratic counties—Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb—Trump narrowed the gap, increasing his margin by an average of 1.3 percentage points.
- In 70% of Georgia’s counties (112 out of 159), Trump achieved his highest election margin of the last four presidential elections in 2024.
Election Shifts
- President Trump improved his election margin in 135 of Georgia’s 159 counties in 2024 compared to 2020.
- This includes 17 of the 20 counties with the highest proportion of voters aged 18–34.
- In 112 of Georgia’s counties (70%), Trump achieved his highest election margin of the last four presidential elections in 2024.
- This includes 11 of the 16 counties where a majority of active registered voters are Black.
- In 2024, Trump flipped four counties he lost in 2016, three of which (Jefferson, Baldwin, and Washington) he also lost in 2020.
Turnout
- Rural voters increased their share of the total vote by 2.4% in 2024, while suburban and urban voters decreased in their overall share of the vote.
- Modeled Republicans had substantial turnout advantages across key demographic groups:
- Among youth voters (ages 17–35), modeled Republicans led by 11.6%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to 2020. This age group also saw the largest increase in turnout compared to 2020.
- Modeled Republican females had a turnout advantage of 6.9% compared to Democrat females.
- Modeled Republican males led with a turnout advantage of 9.7% compared to Democrat males.
AB/EV
- Over 75% of votes were cast before Election Day, reflecting a slight decline from 2020.
- Modeled Republicans had a greater share of their votes come from absentee ballots than modeled Democrats.
- This is a remarkable shift, as modeled Republicans had trailed modeled Democrats in absentee voting during the previous four elections.
