Toplines
- The 2024 election was historic for President Trump, as he earned the highest number of votes ever recorded in Pennsylvania.
- Republicans outperformed Democrats in turnout across all levels of voting propensity, gender, and age:
- Low-propensity voters: Republicans led by 13.7%.
- Youth voters (ages 17–35): Republicans led by 9.2%.
- President Trump increased his vote totals in 97% of counties and improved his election margin in 81% of counties compared to 2020.
- His raw vote totals rose by an average of 6,800 in the top five Hispanic counties and 5,290 in the top five Black counties.
Turnout
- Republican electoral strength remained robust in 2024, with a turnout advantage over Democrats across all voting propensity levels:
- Low-propensity voters: Republicans led by 13.7%.
- Newly registered voters: Republicans led by 4.8%.
- The urban share of the electorate continued to decline in 2024, while rural areas expanded their influence, emphasizing the growing impact of rural voters and decreasing urban significance.
- Republicans held strong turnout advantages across key demographics:
- Youth voters (ages 17–35): Republicans led by 9.2%.
- Among voters aged 17–25, turnout increased by 1.6% from 2020, with a 6.1% advantage for Republicans over Democrats.
- Republican females: Turnout advantage of 6.7%.
- Republican males: Turnout advantage of 9.6%.
- Youth voters (ages 17–35): Republicans led by 9.2%.
AB/EV
- Although over 1 in 4 votes were cast before Election Day, this marked a notable decline from 2020.
- Absentee and early voting still increased compared to 2022, showing that this relatively new method of voting to Pennsylvanians is still stabilizing.
- Republicans significantly reduced the Democratic advantage in absentee voting, increasing their early voting share by 10 percentage points compared to 2022, while the Democratic share remained flat.
Election Shifts
- President Trump improved his election margin in 81% of Pennsylvania’s counties (54 out of 67) compared to 2020.
- In Pennsylvania’s 10 largest counties, which account for 56% of the total vote, Trump’s margin increased by an average of 2.3 percentage points.
- President Trump flipped key counites from vastly different regions of the state, carrying Bucks, Erie, Monroe, and Northampton counties that he lost in 2020.
- Bucks County flipped Republican for the first time since 1988, and Monroe County flipped for the first time since 2004.
- President Trump achieved significant gains in counties with high minority populations:
- In the five counties with the largest Hispanic populations (Philadelphia, Lehigh, Berks, Lancaster, Northampton), Trump’s votes increased by an average of 6,800 compared to 2020.
- In the five counties with the largest Black populations (Philadelphia, Allegheny, Delaware, Montgomery, Dauphin), Trump’s votes increased by an average of 5,290 compared to 2020.
